Dynamic Demand for New and Used Durable Goods without Physical Depreciation by

Dynamic Demand for New and Used Durable Goods without Physical Depreciation Masakazu Ishihara Doctor of Philosophy Joseph L. Rotman School of Management University of Toronto 2011 This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners’ consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners’ and potential